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Millions of Americans are “upside down” on their mortgages — they owe more on their homes than their homes are worth. So far, however, there is little evidence that people who have the means to pay are walking away from their homes as values sink.

The blogosphere is full of tales of homeowners who supposedly are choosing to mail the house keys to their lenders rather than keep their depreciating homes. And yet “jingle mail,” the term for those tinkling packages of keys, appears to be far rarer than many seem to think.

Freddie Mac, the big government-sponsored mortgage company, estimates that just 0.14 percent of the defaulted mortgages in its portfolio involved properties that were abandoned by borrowers. Fannie Mae, another mortgage company, puts the figure in the single digits. Both companies deal in relatively conservative loans, so the total rate may be somewhat higher. Industry officials say they have no way of knowing for sure.

Even so, the idea that some people are simply refusing to pay their mortgages has gripped the popular imagination. The notion picked up momentum in the last few weeks after “Inside Edition,” the celebrity-focused TV news program, reported that Jose Canseco, the former American League most valuable player who made millions during his baseball career, abandoned his $2.5 million mansion outside Los Angeles to move into a smaller property.

“You look at the Jose Canseco issue and say that it’s a walkaway, but he is probably the only person on his block that did that,” said Robert Padgett, director of loss mitigation for Freddie Mac. “Those types of stories garner a lot of attention,” he added, but they are “isolated occurrences.”

Many economists agree. The low numbers from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are consistent with past housing busts, like the ones that occurred in Texas in the 1980s and in the Northeast and California in the early 1990s. Homeowners typically do not walk away from homes they live in unless they are unable to pay the mortgage, usually because of job loss, a death in the family, divorce or a big jump in their monthly payments. Real estate speculators, of course, do abandon properties when prices fall.

In fact, researchers say the rich are no more or less likely to walk away — “ruthlessly default” is the economic term for it — than those of more modest means. A person’s credit history is usually a better indication of how he will behave than his income. How much money a person put down on the house when he bought it also makes a difference.

Investors “are going to default right away because they have negative equity,” said Robert Van Order, an adjunct professor of finance at the University of Michigan. “But that’s different from people who moved into the house.”

Owners who live in their homes do tend to default more when home prices fall. That is because being under water leaves borrowers fewer options if they run into financial trouble. When prices are rising, borrowers can usually sell their houses for more than they paid or refinance their mortgages.

    • This entry was posted on Sunday, May 11th, 2008 at 4:34 amand is filed under California Home Loan Rates. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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